Pack Leaders Emerge in Crowded Field (Image Credits: Ca-times.brightspotcdn.com)
California – A fresh survey places three Democrats and two Republicans in a virtual tie at the top of the 2026 gubernatorial contest, with the June primary just months away.[1][2]
Pack Leaders Emerge in Crowded Field
Republican commentator Steve Hilton holds a slight edge at 14% support among likely voters, followed closely by Democrat former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 13%.[3][1] Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) garnered 12%, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) 11%, and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer (D) 10%.[4] No other candidate surpassed 5%, while 10% remained undecided.
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) conducted the survey online from February 3 to 11 among 1,657 adults, including 1,049 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.[1] This places the top five within a narrow 4-point range, underscoring the race’s unpredictability.[4]
| Candidate | Party | Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 14 |
| Katie Porter | Democrat | 13 |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 12 |
| Eric Swalwell | Democrat | 11 |
| Tom Steyer | Democrat | 10 |
Affordability Takes Center Stage
Cost-of-living pressures dominate voter priorities, with 61% of likely voters deeming candidates’ positions on affordability very important.[2] About 32% identified the cost of living, economy, or inflation as the top issue for the next governor and legislature.[4]
PPIC poll director Mark Baldassare noted, “Three months out from the June primary, the top two slots in the gubernatorial race are up for grabs. Voters feel hammered by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them.”[1] This concern spans parties, regions, and demographics.
Top-Two System Heightens Stakes
California’s nonpartisan top-two primary sends the two highest vote-getters to November, regardless of party.[1] The field features around a dozen candidates, including nine Democrats, raising fears of vote fragmentation among Democrats that could propel both Republicans forward.[4]
No Republican has captured statewide office since 2006, yet Hilton and Bianco command strong GOP backing – 39% and 32% respectively among Republicans.[2] Democrats split support more evenly: 19% for Porter, 18% for Swalwell, and 14% for Steyer.[2] Independents lean slightly toward Porter at 15%.
Recent Shifts Reshape the Contest
Porter’s support dropped from 21% in December, while former Attorney General Xavier Becerra fell from 14% to 5%.[2] New Democratic entrants like Steyer and Swalwell, plus San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, contributed to the realignment.[3]
About six in ten likely voters expressed satisfaction with the candidate choices, though half follow the race loosely.[2] Seven in ten want more town halls and debates.
Key Takeaways
- Affordability tops voter concerns in the governor’s race.
- Republicans hold firm while Democrats fragment.
- Top-two primary risks unexpected November matchup.
As the June primary approaches, California’s next leader remains anyone’s game amid economic worries and a splintered field. The contest tests whether Democrats can consolidate or if Republicans seize a rare opening. What do you think will happen? Tell us in the comments.
