Gone Are the Days When CA Had a GOP Governor–or Are They? – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pexels)
California – With the June 2 primary just weeks away, two Republicans have captured the lead in the race to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom. Recent polls show Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco topping a fragmented field of 61 candidates, raising the prospect of an all-GOP general election matchup in the nation’s most populous state.[1][2] This development underscores widespread voter frustration over housing costs, homelessness, and budget shortfalls after more than a decade of Democratic control.[2]
Polls Point to a Republican Edge
An Emerson College Polling survey conducted April 14-15 captured the unusual dynamics. Steve Hilton drew 17 percent support among likely primary voters, followed by Chad Bianco at 14 percent and Democrat Tom Steyer at 14 percent. Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter, both Democrats, trailed at 10 percent each, while 23 percent remained undecided.[2]
Other surveys echoed the trend. A CBS/YouGov poll placed both Republicans in double digits, with no Democrat pulling ahead decisively.[1] Aggregated data from multiple sources showed Hilton at 18.5 percent, Steyer at 15.1 percent, Becerra at 14.2 percent, and Bianco at 13.3 percent.[3] The economy topped voter concerns at 41 percent, followed by housing affordability at 20 percent.[2]
| Candidate | Party | Emerson Poll (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 17 |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 14 |
| Tom Steyer | Democrat | 14 |
| Xavier Becerra | Democrat | 10 |
| Katie Porter | Democrat | 10 |
Spotlight on the Leading Republicans
Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host and strategist who once advised U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, has positioned himself as a change agent. He proposes shielding the first $100,000 of income from state taxes, cutting the gas tax, and auditing government waste through a “CalDOGE” initiative. President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton in April, a move that solidified his standing among conservatives.[3][4]
Chad Bianco, Riverside County’s sheriff since 2019, emphasizes law enforcement credentials and criticism of Democratic spending. He has opposed state COVID-19 mandates and sanctuary policies, drawing support from police unions. Both candidates consolidated Republican votes early, as their party fields 12 contenders compared to 20 Democrats.[5][4] At the state GOP convention in April, delegates split their support evenly, denying either an endorsement.[4]
Hilton dismissed strategies aimed at advancing both Republicans, insisting the race would pit one from his party against a Democrat. Bianco, meanwhile, portrayed himself as the true outsider free of political baggage.[4]
Democrats Grapple with a Splintered Field
The Democratic lineup includes high-profile names like former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, ex-Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Yet no candidate has emerged as a clear favorite. Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign in mid-April amid sexual misconduct allegations, further scrambling the race.[3][1]
California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks urged lower-polling contenders to exit, warning of the risk in the top-two system. “I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field… the need to narrow the field to ensure we win in November,” Hicks said.[1] Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy highlighted the opportunity: “It’s a perfect opportunity… The mismanagement of Gavin Newsom and such a weak field gives voters a chance to actually look at somebody new and better for California.”[1]
What Matters Now
Voter discontent with one-party rule has created an opening, but California’s two-to-one Democratic registration edge remains a formidable barrier. The top-two outcome will shape the fall contest.
A History of Blue Dominance
Republicans governed California for much of the 20th century, electing figures like Ronald Reagan and Pete Wilson. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 reelection marked the last GOP statewide victory; he left office in 2011.[1] The party’s decline accelerated after Wilson’s support for Proposition 187 in 1994, which targeted services for undocumented immigrants.
Trump’s 6 million votes in California’s 2024 presidential race – 1.6 million more than in 2016 – signaled untapped potential, even in defeat.[1] GOP strategist Rob Stutzman acknowledged affordability issues could aid Republicans long-term, though he doubted a statewide win in the current climate: “In the current tribal environment… I don’t think it’s possible to elect a Republican statewide.”[1]
As ballots go out soon, the race tests whether frustration with high taxes and crises can overcome partisan loyalties. A Republican advance would force Democrats to confront their vulnerabilities in what has long been solid blue territory, potentially reshaping state politics for years.
