The Stunning Scale of Louisiana’s Land Loss Crisis
The numbers are absolutely shocking. Louisiana has been bleeding land at a rate that would make anyone’s jaw drop. In the last century, coastal Louisiana has lost an estimated 4,833 square kilometers (1,866 sq mi) of land, approximately the size of Delaware’s land area. But here’s the kicker – this isn’t just some distant historical problem. Every year, 25-35 square miles of land off the coast of Louisiana—an area larger than Manhattan–disappears into the water due to a combination of subsidence (soil settling) and global sea level rise.
Think about this for a moment. We’re talking about losing the equivalent of Manhattan every single year. The state continues to lose approximately a football field-size of land every 100 minutes along its Gulf Coast. It’s like watching the state literally dissolve before our eyes. Without action, we could lose up to another 3,000 square miles under the 2023 Coastal Master Plan higher environmental scenario over the next 50 years.
When Nature Throws Its Worst Punches
Louisiana’s coastline isn’t just dealing with normal wear and tear. Seas in the region have risen at an unusually rapid rate of over 10 millimeters — or about 0.4 inches — per year since 2010. That might not sound like much, but in the world of sea level rise, that’s breakneck speed. The new research documents how a sudden burst of sea level rise over the past 13 years — the type of surge once not expected until later this century — has left the overwhelming majority of the state’s coastal wetland sites in a state of current or expected “drowning.”
The wetlands that have protected Louisiana for centuries are literally drowning. Out of the 253 wetland monitoring sites, 87 percent “are unable to keep up with rising water levels.” Imagine nearly nine out of every ten wetland areas just giving up the fight against rising waters. It’s an environmental catastrophe unfolding in real time.
The Devastating Human Cost
This isn’t just about losing pretty landscapes or fish habitats. Real people are paying the price right now. Some communities are experiencing flooding on a much more regular basis. If this loss of coastline continues, many of these communities will have to relocate. We’re talking about entire towns that might just disappear from the map. Some communities already have completely relocated, uprooting everyone who lives there.
The economic impact is mind-blowing too. Without action, our estimated damage from flooding will increase from an average of $15.2 billion annually up to an average of approximately $24.3 billion annually. That’s nearly a ten billion dollar increase in flood damage every year if nothing changes. And this is happening to communities that have called Louisiana home for generations.
The Massive $50 Billion Master Plan
Louisiana isn’t sitting around twiddling its thumbs. The state has crafted an ambitious response that’s honestly breathtaking in scope. In 2023, the Louisiana Legislature unanimously approved the latest master plan, which outlined 77 projects costing roughly $50 billion over the next 50 years. That’s fifty billion dollars. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the GDP of many small countries.
The plan isn’t just throwing money at the problem randomly. $11 billion for “nonstructural” risk management such as residential elevations, commercial floodproofing and voluntary acquisition of properties. $25 billion for restoration projects, including marsh creation, diversions, land bridges, ridge restorations and hydrologic restoration projects. $7.7 billion for new levees and improving existing structures. The scope is absolutely staggering, but then again, so is the problem they’re trying to solve.
The Record-Breaking Budget Fights
Money talks, and Louisiana is putting its money where its mouth is. A record $1.71 billion annual spending plan for coastal restoration and hurricane protection was unanimously approved for fiscal year 2025 by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority board of directors. That’s not pocket change – we’re talking about over one and a half billion dollars in a single year.
But here’s where things get interesting and complicated. The Louisiana Coastal Restoration and Protection Authority voted Wednesday to fully fund its nearly $2 billion spending plan for next fiscal year, despite more than a quarter of that money being tied up in the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion project, a project that might never happen. They’re approving massive budgets while their biggest project hangs in limbo.
The Deepwater Horizon Money Running Dry
Here’s a sobering reality check. Louisiana’s desperate efforts to restore and protect its diminishing coastline from further erosion over the past decade has been largely funded by the more than $8 billion in settlement money awarded to the state after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. That sounds like a lot of money, and it is, but it’s not infinite.
But that money is drying up as the state continues to lose approximately a football field-size of land every 100 minutes along its Gulf Coast. The irony is brutal – money from an environmental disaster is being used to fight an even bigger environmental disaster, but it’s running out faster than anyone hoped. Louisiana is essentially racing against time and against their own dwindling bank account.
The Mid-Barataria Diversion Drama
This is where the story gets really dramatic. The Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion was supposed to be Louisiana’s crown jewel project. The Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion is the single largest ecosystem restoration project in the history of the U.S. This project will build more wetlands than any other individual restoration project in the world. It was designed to be a game-changer, literally moving mountains of sediment to rebuild the coast.
But then politics happened. The state on Thursday officially canceled the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion, Louisiana’s biggest-ever coastal restoration project, and moved to replace it with a smaller-scale version accompanied with other elements, citing ballooning costs and other factors. Just like that, years of planning and billions of dollars in potential restoration went down the drain. The announcement had been widely anticipated, but remained a major development considering the years of study and evaluation that had gone into the unprecedented $3 billion project. It has long been seen as the linchpin of the state’s 50-year coastal master plan.
The Political Battle Over Science
The fight over the Mid-Barataria project exposed a massive rift between scientists and politicians. “What the governor did, basically, was pull the plug on the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion,” said Mark Davis, a senior research fellow and founding director of the Tulane Institute on Water Resources Law and Policy. Governor Jeff Landry basically killed what scientists considered essential for saving the coast.
But wait, there’s more. Landry told a Senate committee in Baton Rouge last Thursday that the $3.1 billion diversion would destroy Louisiana’s culture. In doing so, Landry sided with many commercial fishermen and other critics, who argue that 75,000 cubic feet per second of Mississippi River water would devastate the Barataria Basin, marine life and those who make their livings fishing these waters. The governor essentially chose fishing culture over what scientists said was necessary for coastal survival.
The Billion-Dollar Consequences
Canceling the Mid-Barataria project isn’t just disappointing – it’s financially catastrophic. Its collapse means that the state could lose out on more than $1.5 billion in unspent funds and may even have to repay the $618 million it already used to begin building. Louisiana might have to write a check for over half a billion dollars for a project they’re not even building anymore.
The federal trustees aren’t messing around either. Those trustees sent a letter to CPRA executive director Glenn Ledet Jr. in November indicating the $2.26 billion already awarded for the Mid-Barataria diversion would be clawed back should the project stop. That’s over two billion dollars that could vanish if Louisiana doesn’t get its act together. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Wetlands Drowning in Real Time
While politicians argue, nature keeps doing its thing, and it’s not pretty. Rapidly rising seas are wreaking havoc on Louisiana’s coastal wetlands, and could devastate three-quarters of the state’s natural buffer against hurricanes in the coming decades. Three-quarters. That means most of Louisiana’s natural hurricane protection could be gone within decades.
The drowning process is happening faster than anyone expected. Many of the marsh sites in Louisiana are also experiencing major land sinking, or subsidence. This added effect can in some cases double the total speed at which the wetlands are sinking, relative to the height of the ocean. It’s like the land is being attacked from both directions – rising water from above and sinking ground from below.
The Small Wins and Community Heroes
Despite all the bad news, some people are rolling up their sleeves and getting things done. The LouisianaCoastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) today announced recipients of its 2024 Conservation and Restoration Partnership Fund awards. The Partnership Fund is an annual funding opportunity that delivers on-the-ground restoration while also increasing collaboration with non-governmental/non-profit organizations, parish governments, and private entities.
These aren’t massive billion-dollar projects, but they matter. Since the program’s inception in 2008, CPRA has partnered with more than 17 organizations and awarded over $13 million. Additionally, partners have leveraged the state contributions with over $23 million in matching dollars. This funding supports the implementation of high priority projects and advances coastal restoration goals at the local, regional, and statewide level. Sometimes the small battles add up to winning the war.
The Uncertain Future
So where does Louisiana stand now? The picture is honestly pretty mixed. Louisiana’s ambitious plan to save and restore its coastline is stalled amid lawsuits seeking to halt the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion project. And now Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has voiced his own concerns about the project which environmental advocates fear could stall the project indefinitely. There’s still a lot of mixed messaging around whether Louisiana will move forward with a nearly $3 billion project that environmental advocates and experts have said is essential to repairing the state’s eroding coastline.
The confusion at the top is creating chaos throughout the system. In the absence of Mid-Barataria, Davis said, Louisiana would appear to have no Plan B. “The governor indicated he has some ideas. But those aren’t projects, they’re not permitted, and they’re not funded,” Davis said. That’s not exactly reassuring when your coastline is disappearing by the minute.
Louisiana’s fight to save its vanishing coastline represents one of the most complex environmental challenges facing any state in America. With billions of dollars at stake, entire communities hanging in the balance, and the clock ticking faster than ever, the decisions made in the next few years will determine whether Louisiana can hold back the rising waters or watch even more of its heritage slip beneath the waves. The battle isn’t over, but time is running out faster than anyone wants to admit.
