The Demographic Revolution That Nobody Saw Coming
Picture this: you’re driving through a suburban neighborhood that your grandparents might have once called home. But instead of the predictable white picket fences and matching demographics of the 1950s, you’re seeing something entirely different. American suburbs were first populated by white families in the 1950s, and their demographics remained largely unchanged until recently. In 1990, 20% of suburbanites were people of color. By 2020, that number had more than doubled to 45%. The suburbs that once symbolized exclusivity have become melting pots of diversity, completely flipping the script on what suburban America looks like.
The Great Suburban Migration Gets an Unexpected Twist
Kimberly Johnson, a professor of social and cultural analysis at New York University, said the increase is due to gentrification driving people of color out of increasingly expensive cities as well as the allure of a better life. “People can be displaced to suburban spaces,” she said. “But they also choose to go to suburban spaces and bring a lot of hopes, aspirations, and ideas about what good life could or should be.” This isn’t just about housing costs anymore – it’s about reimagining what the American Dream looks like in the 21st century.
Remote Work Reshapes Everything We Know About Suburban Life
The pandemic didn’t just change how we work – it fundamentally altered where we choose to live. Prepandemic, the share of days worked from home was around 5% in the United States. After spiking during the height of the pandemic, the share has stabilized around 27% in survey data till June 2024. This shift has given millions of Americans the freedom to escape expensive urban centers without sacrificing their careers. Using detailed household microdata from the United States, we show that three-fifths of households that left city centers in big cities moved to the suburbs of the same city. This is likely explained by the rise of hybrid work, in which employees still commute to the office a few days a week. The suburban renaissance isn’t just about space – it’s about flexibility.
The Poverty Problem That Suburbs Can’t Ignore
Poverty has been steadily growing in the suburbs over the past 20 years, a trend that accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 60% of the increase in poverty nationwide between 2019 and 2022 occurred in the suburbs, according to a recent report from the Brookings Institution. This reality check shatters the myth that suburbs are automatically prosperity zones. The American suburbs are grappling with challenges that were once considered “urban problems,” forcing communities to confront issues they never expected to face.
Housing Costs Turn Suburban Dreams Into Suburban Nightmares
America is missing 15 million homes due to zoning codes, permitting delays, and political resistance, which have effectively closed off the suburban growth engine and led to rising housing costs, displacement, and homelessness. The US is missing 15 million homes due to lack of housing supply. The suburbs that once promised affordable homeownership are now pricing out the very families they were designed to serve. America has 15 million fewer homes than it should, a shortage driven by the collapse of housing construction in once-booming sunbelt suburbs where opposition has essentially shut down development.
The Political Transformation of Suburbia
The shift has been striking; in 2000, these counties were nearly 70% white. In 2020, they were down to just 53% white, and there is a strong chance they will be majority-minority sometime this decade—if not already. These demographic shifts are creating political earthquakes in communities that once voted predictably. In 2020, for instance, Democrat Joe Biden won six of our seven regions, including four by double digits. Even the Interior West, the most consistently Republican region in the dataset, came within a percentage point of backing Biden. While the Democrats currently dominate in this cutout of suburbia, winning it overall by 17 points overall in 2020, it wasn’t always like this.
The Suburban Building Boom That Never Came
A new NBER working paper, “America’s Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier?” by Harvard’s Edward Glaeser and Wharton’s Joseph Gyourko, documents how the suburban frontier that powered American homeownership for generations is closing. Markets like Phoenix, Atlanta and Dallas, which built aggressively through the 1990s, now look increasingly like supply-constrained coastal cities, with soaring prices and flatlined construction. The suburban growth engine that powered American prosperity for decades has essentially stalled, leaving communities scrambling to find solutions to a crisis they didn’t see coming.
Educational Challenges in the New Suburban Reality
Suburban schools reported higher rates of chronic absenteeism in 2022 than other localities, and nearly half of them reported being understaffed at the start of the 2023-24 school year, said Peggy Carr, commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics. The suburbs are struggling with problems that were once considered uniquely urban challenges. School systems that were once the pride of suburban communities are now facing resource constraints and staffing shortages that mirror the difficulties of inner-city schools.
The Technology-Driven Suburban Renaissance
Nicholas A. Bloom, William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University, likens the WFH trajectory to a “Nike swoosh.” It rose extremely quickly between 2020-22, flattened in 2023, and by 2025, will rise again due to anticipated improvements in technology. The third phase is likely to start in around 2025 when WFH levels will start to slowly rise again, driven by ever improving technologies. This includes everything from better audio, video, and laptops, to virtual reality, holograms, and new apps. Technology isn’t just changing how we work – it’s fundamentally rewiring the economic geography of America, with suburbs positioned to be the big winners.
The Construction Industry’s Suburban Shift
More residential construction is occurring in low density suburbs and outlying areas because of several factors that affect housing affordability, including the continued lack of buildable lots, higher home building costs and an ongoing shortage of construction workers. “Regulations and NIMBY policies create significant headwinds for builders to construct affordable housing in urban centers, which has created this shift in residential construction to low density areas,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. The building industry is adapting to new realities, but the question remains whether they can build fast enough to meet demand.
The Aging Infrastructure Challenge
Following decades of rising population and affluence compared with the central cities, the luster of the nation’s large suburbs has diminished since 2000. Though the suburban population continues to increase at a relatively healthy clip, a range of indicators show that large suburban counties are lagging the gains of their urban core counterparts. Compared with 2000, suburban populations are now less engaged in the labor market, experiencing declining household incomes and seeing housing stock value that has not kept pace with that of the central cities. The suburban infrastructure built in the post-war boom is showing its age, creating maintenance challenges that many communities are struggling to address.
The Future of Suburban America
The big picture: A number of demographic, housing and business trends are coming together to revive suburbs. By the numbers: Between 2010 and 2020, the share of Americans living in the suburbs grew by 10.5%, per Census data — and the pandemic only accelerated this trend, the New York Times reports. Despite all the challenges, suburbs are experiencing a renaissance that’s reshaping American society. These changes are also shifting the demographic make-up of suburbs, which have long been thought of as whiter and less diverse than cities. Big suburbs are now more racially diverse than the country as a whole, according to a Brookings Institution analysis. The suburbs of tomorrow won’t look anything like the suburbs of yesterday – and that might be exactly what America needs.
The transformation of American suburbs since the 1950s represents one of the most significant demographic and economic shifts in modern history. From the homogeneous enclaves of the post-war era to today’s diverse, tech-enabled communities grappling with urban-level challenges, suburbs have become the testing ground for America’s future. Whether they can successfully navigate issues of affordability, infrastructure, and inequality will determine not just the fate of suburban communities, but the trajectory of American society itself. The suburbs that once offered an escape from complexity now find themselves at the center of America’s most pressing challenges – and perhaps its greatest opportunities.
