Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics – 5.15.26 – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pexels)
As Florida moves closer to the 2026 elections, new statewide polling released this month shows Republicans maintaining a clear advantage across key races. The survey, conducted between May 1 and 9, found U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Alex Vindman by eight points and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leading former U.S. Rep. David Jolly by the same margin. These results align with broader voter registration trends that give Republicans roughly 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats heading into the fall campaign.
Polling Reflects Broader Voter Sentiment
The Florida Chamber of Commerce survey also tested a generic ballot question, where Republicans led Democrats 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. Term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis posted a 54 percent approval rating in the same poll, matching the figure recorded by the same firm one year earlier. Economic concerns topped the list of voter priorities, with one in six respondents naming the economy and cost of living as their primary issue.
Property taxes and insurance costs each drew double-digit support, while immigration and education registered at 8 percent apiece. The findings suggest that financial pressures continue to shape voter outlook more than any single social or cultural topic at this stage of the cycle.
Budget Talks Enter Special Session With Multiple Flashpoints
Lawmakers returned to Tallahassee this week for a special session after failing to complete a state budget during the regular session. Negotiations have centered on several high-stakes items, including behavioral health funding, rural economic programs, and security costs tied to presidential visits. The House and Senate remain divided on how much to allocate for a Medicaid waiver that could expand treatment capacity, with the House proposing nearly $115 million and the Senate offering less.
Additional friction has surfaced over funding for cultural grants, judicial expansion, and a proposed $750,000 allocation to help Doral cover police overtime during high-profile events at Trump National Doral Miami. Senate leaders have also scaled back most elements of a rural renaissance package originally valued at $152 million, leaving only limited support for infrastructure and workforce initiatives. These disagreements have delayed final action and raised questions about whether a compromise can be reached before the July 1 start of the new fiscal year.
One proposal gaining traction would extend state-funded security protection for DeSantis and his family for up to one year after he leaves office in January 2027. Supporters cite his national profile and recent threats against political figures as justification for the added expense.
Behavioral Health Emerges as Central Policy Focus
Rep. Sam Garrison, the Fleming Island Republican expected to become House speaker, has placed behavioral health at the center of his upcoming agenda. Speaking at a recent Chamber Leadership Conference, Garrison described Florida’s current system as outdated and held together with “duct tape and chicken wire.” He noted that mental illness and substance abuse frequently appear in the criminal cases he handled during a decade as a prosecutor.
Garrison argued that law enforcement and emergency responders now shoulder responsibilities that properly belong to treatment providers. Andy Keller, CEO of the Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute, echoed the concern, warning that officers face “toxic exposure” when they must act as frontline behavioral health responders. Lawmakers in both chambers have agreed on redesigning the Statewide Inpatient Psychiatric Program, yet broader funding differences persist as negotiations continue.
Additional Developments Shape the Political Calendar
Other items on the radar this week include a new University of North Florida poll showing that 24 percent of Floridians have placed sports bets through apps, though only 15 percent support expanding legal wagering. Separately, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission ended a permitting program that allowed the capture of wild manta rays for overseas aquariums, shifting future decisions on endangered marine species to the full commission.
In Miami, voters will decide this summer whether to move city elections to even-numbered years beginning in 2034. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Kelly Kirschner reported raising more than $100,000 in his first week as a challenger in Florida’s 16th Congressional District.
What Matters Now
Key developments to watch include the outcome of budget negotiations, the trajectory of behavioral health reforms, and whether early polling numbers hold as candidates begin active campaigning this summer.
With six months remaining until Election Day, the combination of steady Republican registration advantages and persistent economic concerns suggests that financial issues will remain central to voter decisions. Lawmakers face immediate pressure to resolve budget differences before the new fiscal year begins, while candidates across the state continue to build support ahead of primary deadlines later this summer.
