Florida Chamber poll: Florida’s Republican tilt holds steady – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)
A fresh survey from the Florida Chamber of Commerce finds that the state’s Republican tilt shows little movement six months before Election Day. The poll, conducted May 1-9 by Cherry Communications, places Republican candidates ahead in head-to-head matchups for the U.S. Senate and a key House seat while confirming a steady edge on the generic ballot. Voter registration figures released alongside the results reinforce the same pattern, with the GOP maintaining a 1.5 million voter lead that has not narrowed since the end of 2025.
Head-to-Head Race Results
U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alex Vindman by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a prospective Senate contest. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds an identical eight-point margin over former U.S. Rep. David Jolly. Donalds’ advantage widens slightly when matched against the other leading Democratic contender, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
These individual race numbers align closely with the generic ballot test, which shows Republicans ahead 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters statewide. The consistency across different contests suggests the partisan balance has settled into a durable pattern rather than a temporary snapshot.
Registration Data and Approval Ratings
Florida Republicans finished 2025 with roughly 5.5 million registered voters compared with 4 million Democrats, a gap that has remained steady into the current cycle. An additional 3.8 million voters list no party affiliation. This registration advantage continues to shape expectations for turnout and resource allocation in the months ahead.
Term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis registers a 54 percent approval rating in the same survey, matching the figure recorded by the identical pollster one year earlier. The unchanged rating indicates that core support for the governor has not eroded despite the passage of time and shifting national conditions.
| Race or Measure | Republican | Democrat | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moody vs. Vindman | 48% | 40% | +8 |
| Donalds vs. Jolly | 48% | 40% | +8 |
| Generic Ballot | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| DeSantis Approval | 54% | – | – |
Top Voter Concerns
Economy and cost of living rank as the leading issue for roughly one in six likely voters. Property taxes and insurance costs each draw double-digit concern, while immigration and education each register at 8 percent. These priorities point to a campaign environment centered on pocketbook pressures rather than sweeping ideological shifts.
The distribution of concerns suggests candidates will need to address concrete financial pressures to move undecided voters. With the registration gap holding steady, both parties face clear incentives to focus messaging on these specific cost-related topics.
Business Community Priorities
Separately, the Chamber tested attitudes toward companies that invest in employee mental health and wellness. Seventy-four percent of respondents said they would be more likely to work for or buy from such businesses, while only 6 percent disagreed. The finding reflects broad public support for workplace policies that extend beyond traditional compensation.
Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson noted that member businesses have long prioritized long-term outcomes over short-term gains. He added that advancing behavioral health leadership benefits both the state’s future and its residents, with private-sector leaders gathering in Orlando this week to coordinate strategies around the nation’s first business-led mental health report.
Outlook for the Remainder of the Cycle
The poll carries a sample of 604 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Its topline findings indicate that Florida’s partisan landscape has stabilized around a clear Republican advantage that shows no immediate signs of reversal. Candidates and strategists on both sides now have a defined set of numbers to guide resource decisions through the fall.
With six months remaining, the data frame a contest in which economic messaging and registration strength will likely determine final margins more than sudden swings in public sentiment. The results leave little doubt that the state’s political balance remains tilted in one direction for the time being.
