Where Trump falters with Republicans – and where he holds steady, according to a new AP-NORC poll – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Flickr)
A new poll shows Republican support for President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy has fallen from roughly eight in ten to six in ten since the conflict with Iran began earlier this year. The decline coincides with higher gasoline prices and stalled progress toward a lasting ceasefire. At the same time, the survey finds that Trump’s broader grip on the Republican Party remains firm, as evidenced by recent primary victories for his preferred candidates.
Economic Pressures Test GOP Patience
The drop in economic approval marks a clear shift from earlier in the year. In February, before the Iran conflict escalated, 79 percent of Republicans backed Trump’s approach to the economy. By mid-May, that figure stood at 63 percent, according to the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Overall adult approval of his economic performance sits near one-third, little changed from late April but below the 40 percent recorded at the start of his second term.
Families across the country feel the effects through rising fuel costs that affect daily commutes and leisure travel. One Wisconsin Republican described how he now helps cover gas expenses for his teenage children learning to drive, noting that the Iran situation has intensified pressures already visible in grocery prices. Another Republican from Las Vegas viewed the increases as a temporary cost of confronting a serious foreign problem, expecting conditions to stabilize once the conflict resolves.
Immigration Continues to Bolster Trump’s Standing
Approval of Trump’s immigration policies has rebounded to 45 percent among all adults, up from lower levels earlier in the year. Among Republicans the figure reaches about eight in ten, roughly ten points higher than his overall job approval within the party. The administration has shifted toward quieter enforcement tactics after earlier high-profile operations drew criticism.
An independent voter from Alabama credited Trump with taking concrete steps to reduce illegal crossings where previous administrations had not. She contrasted his actions with those of Presidents Obama and Biden, saying the current approach finally addressed a long-standing issue. This strength on immigration helps offset some of the economic discontent within the Republican coalition.
Foreign Policy and Iran Draw Limited Backing
Only about one-third of adults approve of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict or his broader foreign policy. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans support his Iran approach, though younger members of the party show more skepticism than older ones. Views on foreign policy overall have remained largely steady in recent months despite aggressive moves elsewhere, such as actions involving Venezuela and Cuba.
A Republican-leaning independent in Georgia expressed concern that resources spent on the conflict bring little direct benefit to Americans already worried about fuel costs. She acknowledged the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but questioned whether the current path justifies the expense. Most Democrats and about seven in ten independents disapprove of Trump’s performance on these issues.
Key Approval Shifts in Recent Months
| Issue | Overall U.S. Adults | Republicans Now | Republicans in February |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 33% | 63% | 79% |
| Immigration | 45% | ~80% | Not reported |
| Iran | 33% | ~66% | Not reported |
The poll of 1,117 adults was conducted May 14-18 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. These numbers illustrate where external events have created friction and where core party priorities continue to align with the president’s agenda.
Party Unity Persists Despite Domestic Strains
Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 37 percent, a modest increase from 33 percent in April. Nearly all Democrats remain opposed, yet the Republican base shows little sign of abandoning him. Primary results this week reinforced that pattern when his endorsed candidate defeated a vocal critic in the party.
The survey captures a moment when foreign policy actions intersect with everyday economic realities for many voters. While some frustration has surfaced on pocketbook issues, the data point to continued cohesion on enforcement priorities and party leadership. Observers will watch whether these patterns hold as the conflict and economic conditions evolve.
