AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan’s special election for control of the state Senate – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pexels)
In a district that has lacked representation in the state Senate for more than 16 months, residents of Central Michigan face a pivotal choice. The special election on Tuesday will determine whether Democrats maintain their narrow majority or Republicans force a deadlock. Control of the chamber carries direct implications for legislation on issues ranging from budgets to policy priorities, affecting communities across the state.
The High Stakes in District 35
Democrats secured a slim 19-18 advantage in the Michigan Senate following the 2022 elections, part of a broader trifecta that included the governorship and House control at the time. Republicans reclaimed the House in 2024, leaving the Senate as the party’s main target. A victory for the GOP candidate would even the score at 19-19, complicating Democratic efforts to advance bills.
Even with Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II available to break ties, Republicans could obstruct progress by refusing to provide the votes needed for the 20-vote threshold required for passage. This dynamic has already shaped legislative sessions, and the outcome here could extend that tension through the end of the year. Local stakeholders, from business groups to advocacy organizations, closely monitor the race for its potential to stall or accelerate key measures.
Candidates and Their Paths to the General Election
Democrat Chedrick Greene, a firefighter who previously served as a state Senate aide to the district’s former representative, dominated the February 3 special primary with 60% of the vote against five challengers. His background in public service positions him as a familiar figure to voters seeking continuity. Greene has also filed paperwork to compete in the August 4 primary for a full term.
Republican Jason Tunney, an attorney and former executive at his family’s roofing company, edged out three opponents in the GOP primary with 51% of the vote. Libertarian Ali Sledz rounds out the ballot. Tunney, like Greene, plans to seek nomination for the full term, setting up potential rematches later this year. Both major-party nominees bring local ties that resonate in this lakeside district bordering Lake Huron.
A District Defined by Close Contests
State Senate District 35 spans portions of Bay, Midland, and Saginaw counties, areas that lean Republican overall but prove more competitive within these boundaries. Former Democratic Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet captured the seat in 2022 with 53% of the vote before vacating it in January 2025 upon her election to Congress. Democratic presidential candidates have edged out Republicans here in recent cycles, with Kamala Harris prevailing by a slim 49.7% to 48.9% margin in 2024.
Joe Biden held a slightly wider lead over Donald Trump in the district during the 2020 presidential race. Trump carried the broader counties in 2024, yet the district’s Saginaw segment provided Harris with a decisive 17-point advantage, offsetting narrower GOP edges elsewhere. These patterns underscore the area’s swing potential, drawing national attention to turnout and early voting trends.
Election Logistics and What to Expect
Polls in District 35 close at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, with any registered voter eligible to participate, including same-day registrants. Nearly 46,000 ballots came out for the February special primary, compared to over 116,000 in the 2022 general election. As of Friday, about 32,000 early and absentee ballots had already been cast, representing a significant share ahead of Election Day.
Counties typically release initial results slowly, blending advance and in-person votes gradually. Bay County often holds pre-Election Day tallies until later, while Midland and Saginaw update throughout the night. In 2022, the Associated Press reported the first results 53 minutes after polls closed, reaching 89% counted by 2:23 a.m. ET. No automatic recounts apply to state Senate races; candidates may request one at their expense.
| Key Election Details | Details |
|---|---|
| Primary Turnout (Feb. 3) | ~46,000 ballots |
| 2022 General Turnout | ~116,000 ballots |
| Early/Absentee So Far | ~32,000 ballots |
| Next Milestones | Aug. 4 primary; Nov. 2026 general |
Beyond Tuesday: Timeline and Implications
The winner will serve the remaining eight months of the term, influencing sessions through year’s end. With primaries looming 91 days away on August 4, the special election serves as an early test for full-term campaigns. Michigan’s political landscape remains fluid, especially after Democrats’ 2022 gains eroded in subsequent cycles.
Residents in Bay, Midland, and Saginaw counties stand to feel the effects most immediately, as Senate control shapes responses to local needs like infrastructure and economic development. The race highlights broader national trends in battleground states, where narrow margins define power. For now, all eyes turn to the ballot box, where a single seat could redefine legislative gridlock.
Follow live updates and analysis at AP’s coverage of the 2026 election.
